Status Quo, Anchoring, and Optimism biases impacting your OCM
Like everyone else, organizational Change Management (OCM) is susceptible to being hampered by various biases affecting decision-making and execution. Optimism, anchoring, and status quo biases are three frequent cognitive biases affecting OCM. This week we will investigate these biases and discuss techniques to limit their consequences on projects.
Optimism Bias
Optimism bias is the propensity to overestimate the chance of happy outcomes while simultaneously underestimating the likelihood of adverse outcomes. Because of this bias, individuals may incorrectly estimate the amount of time and resources necessary to finish a task or project or overestimate their capacity to deal with future issues. Additionally, it might lead people to disregard warning signs or to persist with a project despite data that suggests it is unlikely to be successful. Every project has a little optimism bias. When we are kicking off a project, we know the timeline is optimistic, but we push forward, knowing milestones will slip.
Anchoring Bias
Anchoring bias occurs when individuals place excessive weight on the initial piece of information they obtain and then proceed to make decisions without taking into account all of the information that is accessible to them. The first number that is put forward becomes the anchor, and subsequent numbers offered deviate from that point. In car sales, you will see the MSRP, which is the anchor, and then you negotiate from that point. In project management, we have it with work estimations when we are trying to get a time (or point for scrum) estimate.
If you want to have fun with this one experiment, I did with developers when estimating a new project. We would usually be on a call and talk through what they think it would take to get something done. I changed that, and instead of waiting for us all to be together, I emailed the three developers separately and asked for their estimates in isolation. What was very interesting (for me) was the range of the three. The low-end number was very close to what had been used in previous estimates, but the average was higher and aligned with previous project closeouts for similar work.
It is vital to receive information from numerous sources, comprehend the context of the data, and involve multiple stakeholders in the decision-making process to eliminate this bias. Because of the possibility of anchoring bias, OCM practitioners and technical project managers may find themselves in a position where they need to analyze all of the available options and make judgments based on limited information.
Status Quo
Is the bias toward maintaining the status quo causing stakeholders and users to oppose new ideas and improvements? This can emerge as teams/departments resist adopting new technology or procedures that can improve production and efficiency. It can result in a lack of creativity and an inability to react to shifting market conditions. The work by Everett Rogers on the Diffusion of Innovation is a great visual way to explain to project teams the realities of status quo bias. As change enablers, we need to identify those users/stakeholders primed for change and situationally in the early-adopters group. It is essential to consider that people are complex, fascinating humans. While they may be laggards in automobiles, they can be early adopters when the subject is technology. I run into this all the time when bringing change champions together, and someone is suggested because of one area, but they need to have a better mindset regarding the subject of the project.
It is important to be aware of how these biases can substantially impact technical project management and OCM.
Books that explore these subjects include;
