Looking into How Availability, Clustering, and Correlation biases impact OCM
In this post, I will explore three more biases in human behavior and how they can present themselves when a company is going through a change. This week we are looking into; the clustering illusion, the illusory correlation, and the availability heuristic.
The Availability Heuristic
The availability heuristic is the tendency to overestimate the importance of easily available information. Employees may perceive the change as more significant than it really is during any change effort because they are more aware of it.
To address the availability heuristic, providing employees with context for the change is essential. As part of designing a change vision for a project, I often take leadership teams through a 6EQ (Six Essential Questions) activity to co-create answers to; What is changing, Why is the change happening, Who is impacted by the change, What are the risks of not changing, How will people respond to the change, and what are the expected results/benefits.
Designing critical thinking into our activities can also avoid overestimating the significance of the change based on readily available information. Intentionally laying the groundwork for learning at the beginning of the process helps the team recognize that we will make decisions under uncertainty and refine them as we go on the journey together.
The Clustering Illusion
The clustering Illusion is the tendency to see patterns or clusters in random data. It is the tendency to erroneously consider the inevitable "streaks" or "clusters" arising in small samples from random distributions to be non-random. A casino will put a sign at a roulette table showing several of the previous numbers that have come up. They want gamblers to believe they can see a pattern when the odds on each spin are the same. In change management, this bias can present itself during a project when employees perceive a pattern that is not really there. We see this when a pilot group has an issue with a few users; there is a tendency to think that everyone working remotely or in the Charlotte office has the same problem. It is crucial to provide employees with data showing patterns and trends. This means we must have our test cases, UAT scripts, and event reporting ready. Explaining the decision-making process can help employees understand that decisions are based on objective criteria rather than arbitrary patterns. Let's be honest; it is far easier for me to write 'explain the decision-making process' than it is for many to actually do it.
Rant:
The Illusory Correlation
The illusory correlation is the tendency to see a relationship between two variables when there is no actual relationship. Employees may perceive a correlation between certain actions or events during a change effort when no correlation exists. On the interpersonal side, this bias can be dangerous when expressed in any stereotyping. I could and may do an entire series on stereotyping and its constant struggle. On the analytics side, this bias can lead to potentially sub-optimal decision-making. I say "potentially" because if there is a strong correlation, then the time and effort to analyze the causation may not be worth it. If you want to geek out on this area, I recommend the book, Causal Models by Steven Sloman.
Above all, you must realize that we all have biases, and they will rear their heads in many strange ways. The clustering illusion, the illusory correlation, and the availability heuristic are just a few examples of biases that can impact employee perceptions of the change. Understanding all these biases is an integral part of effective change management, and it requires a combination of providing data, encouraging critical thinking, and providing context and perspective.
Resources that I used for this include;
Causal Models by Steven Sloman
The Brainy Business Podcast by Melina Palmer
Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely
But what if we're wrong by Chuck Klosterman
The Knowledge Illusion by Steven Sloman and Philip Ferbach
